Journal of Clinical Medicine Research, ISSN 1918-3003 print, 1918-3011 online, Open Access
Article copyright, the authors; Journal compilation copyright, J Clin Med Res and Elmer Press Inc
Journal website https://jocmr.elmerjournals.com

Original Article

Volume 18, Number 9, September 2026, pages 643-651

Bone Morphogenetic Protein-10 as a Predictor of Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Catheter Ablation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Figures

↓  Figure 1. PRISMA flow diagram.
Figure 1.
↓  Figure 2. Forest plot illustrating random-effects meta-analysis of unadjusted HR of BMP10 association with post-ablation AF recurrence. AF: atrial fibrillation; BMP10: bone morphogenetic protein-10; HR: hazard ratio.
Figure 2.
↓  Figure 3. Forest plot illustrating random-effects meta-analysis of adjusted HR of BMP10 association with post-ablation AF recurrence. AF: atrial fibrillation; BMP10: bone morphogenetic protein-10; HR: hazard ratio.
Figure 3.
↓  Figure 4. Forest plot illustrating exploratory analysis of BMP10 (mixed scaling) association with post-ablation AF recurrence. AF: atrial fibrillation; BMP10: bone morphogenetic protein-10.
Figure 4.

Tables

↓  Table 1. Search Strategies on Major Databases
 
DatabaseKeywords/search strategyFiltersSearch result
BMP-10: bone morphogenetic protein-10; MeSH: Medical Subject Headings.
Pubmed MeSH/Medline"BMP-10"[All Fields] OR "Bone morphogenetic protein 10"[Text Word] OR "Bone Morphogenetic Proteins"[MeSH Terms]) AND ("Atrial fibrillation recurrence"[Text Word] OR "atrial fibrillation"[Text Word] OR ("recurrance"[All Fields] OR "Recurrence"[MeSH Terms] OR "Recurrence"[All Fields] OR "recurrences"[All Fields] OR "recurrencies"[All Fields] OR "recurrency"[All Fields] OR "recurrent"[All Fields] OR "recurrently"[All Fields] OR "recurrents"[All Fields]) OR "AF free period"[Text Word] OR "atrial fibrillation"[MeSH Terms] OR "Recurrence"[MeSH Terms]) AND ("catheter ablation"[Text Word] OR ("cryoablated"[All Fields] OR "Cryosurgery"[MeSH Terms] OR "Cryosurgery"[All Fields] OR "cryoablation"[All Fields] OR "cryoablations"[All Fields]) OR "Radiofrequency catheter ablation"[Text Word] OR "pulmonary vein* isolation"[Text Word] OR "catheter ablation"[MeSH Terms] OR "Cryosurgery"[MeSH Terms] OR "Radiofrequency Ablation"[MeSH Terms]Filters applied: English, humans, exclude preprints.4
Cochrane Library"BMP-10" OR "Bone morphogenetic protein 10" AND "Atrial fibrillation recurrence" AND “Catheter ablation”2
Science Direct"BMP-10" OR "Bone morphogenetic protein 10" AND "Atrial fibrillation recurrence" AND "Catheter ablation"Last 10 years, research/review articles, medicine & dentistry, English, open access and open archive16
Europe PubMed central"BMP-10" OR "Bone morphogenetic protein 10" AND "Atrial fibrillation recurrence" AND "Catheter ablation" OR cryoablation OR "Radiofrequency catheter ablation" OR "Pulmonary vein isolation"3
Google Scholar"BMP-10" OR "Bone morphogenetic protein 10" AND "Atrial fibrillation recurrence" AND "Catheter ablation"Last 10 years5

 

↓  Table 2. Study Characteristics
 
Study details, countryStudy designAblation strategyAF recurrence (%)Mean/median follow-upSample sizeMale (%)Mean age (years)BMI (kg/m2)BMP10 and AF recurrence, HR (95% CI)
AF: atrial fibrillation; aHR: adjusted hazard ratio; BMI: body mass index; CI: confidence interval; ECG: electrocardiogram; HR: hazard ratio; PVI: pulmonary vein isolation; RFCA: radiofrequency catheter ablation.
Chua et al, 2024, International/multi-centric [25]Prospective biomarker cohort analysis of AXAFA-AFNET5 trialFirst time catheter ablation (PVI + other)120 (28%)3 months (ECG and 24-h ECG monitoring)43367%6428 (recurrent 29)Unadjusted HR 1.23 (1.03–1.48) (continuous BMP10)
aHR 1.24 (1.02–1.51) (continuous BMP10)
Reyat et al 2020, Multicenter Europe Cohort [20]Prospective cohort analyses embedded within multiple cohorts (AFACT, MARK AF & AFLMU)Catheter-based AF ablation AFLMU cohort153 (42.62%)12 months (7-day Holter)35959.3%68 (recurrent AF group)23.3 (recurrent AF group)Unadjusted HR 1.527 (1.150–2.028) (continuous BMP)
aHR (multivariate) 1.339 (1.159–1.546) (per quartile BMP10 increase)
aHR (univariate adjustment for age/sex/AF type/left atrial diameter) 1.334 (1.142–1.558) (per quartile BMP10 increase)
Hennings et al 2023, Switzerland [26]Prospective Cohort (Swiss-AF-PVI registry)First elective catheter ablation (PVI with RF or cryoballoon)374 (33.6%)12 months (ECG + 7-day Holter)1,11274%6127.3Unadjusted HR 2.28 (1.43–3.62) (continuous log-BMP10)
Age- & sex-adjusted HR 2.08 (1.23–3.52) (continuous BMP10)
Multivariable adjusted HR 1.98 (1.14–3.42) (continuous BMP10)
Quartile 4 vs. quartile 1, aHR (multivariable) 1.46 (1.06–2.02)
(multivariable adjustments for age/sex/BMI/CAD/HTN/HF/diabetes/stroke/renal failure)